Global Warming
18 May 2009
We've all heard about global warming and the problems it may create.
We're aware that it could cause severe weather, melting glaciers and raising
sea level. Most people live in the city though and when living in the
city, it's easy to ignore the weather.
I spent years working in a tall, climate controlled building with windows
that didn't open. Even with a torrential downpour, I could go from my
house to the garage to my car to work without ever getting wet. We
didn't live near sea level and we didn't live on a glacier. Severe
storms, heat waves, early frosts, droughts and flooding were interesting news
stories but not something that really affected my daily life.
Growing Kona coffee for a living is a whole different story. Farming
requires me to watch the weather closely and it can have a big impact on my
daily life as well as my annual income. This year's rainy season
started a bit late and I can definitely tell because the coffee trees haven't
bloomed correctly yet. Without a good bloom, there won't be a good
coffee harvest. Last year's weather was slightly cloudier than usual so
we never got a good bloom. It was nothing severe, just slightly cloudier
than usual, but it was enough to cut our production in half. The lasting
effect will be felt this year too. Unusual weather one year can have a
dramatic effect even years later. It doesn't take a huge heat wave,
prolonged drought or 100 year flood to get my attention now, I notice even the
slightest drop of rain.
Some farm jobs, such as spreading fertilizer, are best done when it is going
to rain soon. Spread the fertilizer in dry weather and most of the
nitrogen will disappear (volatize) straight into the atmosphere. On the
other hand, too much rain will wash the fertilizer away. A light rain is
ideal, maybe 1/4" immediately after fertilizing. Fertilizing in the rain
is not fun so I try to guess when the rain is going to arrive and start
fertilizing a few hours ahead of time. Sometimes I guess correctly,
sometimes I get wet.
Most farm work is easiest to do when it's not raining. To plan my day
I will often check the local weather forecast as well as looking out my
own window. I plan my schedule based on what I think the weather will
do. Sometimes I guess correctly, sometimes I get wet.
I'm not a trained meteorologist but I can often guess better than the local
weatherman. Did you know that many TV weathermen don't actually have a
degree in meteorology? Apparently, believe it or not, good looks and a
pleasant personality are more important than actual forecasting abilities.
TV weathermen usually rely on the national weather service anyways because
they're the ones with the fancy radars, computer models and weather satellites.
I have a good friend that majored in meteorology. I remember him taking
a class on forecasting. They had data for several different cities across
the country and the students competed with each other to see who could make the
most accurate weather forecasts. They also competed against a thing called
persistence. Basically, persistence is nothing but forecasting the same
weather as yesterday. If the weather stays the same, persistence is
correct; if the weather changes, persistence is wrong. Forecasting more
accurately than persistence is not as easy as it sounds.
I once needed a stretch of sunny weather so I could do some painting.
Every morning I'd wake up and look out my window to see bright sunshine.
Then I'd check the weather report and it showed heavy rain for the next several
days. Taking the weatherman's word for it, I'd put off the job until the
forecast looked better. Of course it stayed bright and sunny all week
until the forecast showed sunshine. As soon as they predicted sun and
I started painting, then it would rain.
A couple months ago I was driving into town and the rain was coming down in
torrents. It was so windy and rainy that I almost pulled over to wait
it out. At that very instant, the weatherman came on the radio and said
"Today will be sunny and warm with calm winds." The guy must have been
in a studio with no windows because any idiot could see that it was neither
sunny, warm nor calm.
I don't put much trust in the daily weather forecast and I never trust the
extended forecast. The local extended forecast is wrong more often than
it is right. That is extra amazing since the persistence model is almost
guaranteed to be correct here in Hawaii. It's as if the weatherman has
to work at it in order to be so wrong.
With weather radar and satellites that can see the storms coming for miles
across an empty ocean, it seems like predicting the weather in Hawaii shouldn't
be all that difficult. There are some very bright people at the national
weather service but even with all their fancy technology, sophisticated
modeling and years of experience, they still can't reliably predict today's
weather. Apparently this weather forecasting stuff is much more
complicated than it seems.
And that is why I am unconvinced by weather predictions for 100 years from
now. Reading news articles and watching the Discover channel, it seems
that global warming is a foregone conclusion. I've seen Al Gore's
"An Inconvenient Truth" and he seems to present a lot of convincing
evidence. His conclusions certainly make good drama. But if you
look at the actual data, what we know for certain rather than just what we
think might happen, then the conclusions aren't so straightforward. Even
the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the group that advises
the UN on global warming, admits that "...long term prediction of future climate
states is not possible".
(Climate Change 2001, part 14.2.2.2, fifth paragraph)
Too bad they keep giving predictions anyways.
In my lifetime there have been many dire global weather predictions.
In the 70's it was a coming ice age. The predictions were based on a
measurable drop in global temperatures but not much else. In the 80's,
Carl Sagan published a report
(TTAPS)
that had us worked up about nuclear winter, a scenario that is impossible to
predict accurately. In the early 90's Sagan used his nuclear winter
theories to predict a "year without a summer" triggered by the burning oil
wells in Kuwait during Desert Storm (ABC, Nightline, 1-22-1991). That
never happened, despite Saddam Hussein igniting nearly 700 oil wells.
The late 90's were filled with concern about CFC's and the
hole in the ozone layer
which turned out to be easily fixable. Now there is global warming.
At the risk of sounding overly skeptical, I think I see a pattern. I'll
need some solid evidence before I panic this time.
It's been said that we have to act now, before it's too late. I agree
that it's important to look ahead and not be complacent but I'm not convinced
we really know what's best for the planet's future. Imagine someone from
1900 trying to decide what is best for us in 2000. In New York in 1900
they had a big problem with horse manure because nobody drove cars, they
certainly weren't capable of legislating our gas prices. President
Theodore Roosevelt established the national park system, establishing himself
as a conservationist, yet he knew nothing of carbon emissions. Here, from
Michael Crichton
is a short list of words that Teddy Roosevelt did not know the meaning of:
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airport, antibiotic, antibody, antenna, computer, continental drift,
tectonic plates, zipper, nylon, radio, television, robot, video, virus,
gene, proton, neutron, atomic structure, quark, atomic bomb, nuclear
energy, ecosystem, jumpsuits, fingerprints, step aerobics, 12-step, jet
stream, shell shock, shock wave, radio wave, microwave, tidal wave,
tsunami, IUD, DVD, MP3, MRI, HIV, SUV, VHS, VAT, whiplash, wind tunnel,
carpal tunnel, fiber optics, direct dialing, dish antennas, gorilla,
corneal transplant, liver transplant, heart transplant, liposuction,
transduction, maser, taser, laser, acrylic, penicillin, Internet,
interferon, nylon, rayon, leisure suit, leotard, lap dancing, laparoscopy,
arthroscopy, gene therapy, bipolar, moonwalk, spot welding, heat-seeking,
Prozac, sunscreen, urban legends, rollover minutes
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The list may be a bit specious but the point is to not assume that we know
everything. I'm not willing to bet that citizens of 2100 will drill for
oil or drive gasoline powered cars, are you? Imagine if, during the 70's,
we had decided to prevent the coming ice age by trying to warm the Earth.
It's important to keep moving forward and there are some things we can do that
are very likely to be a good thing, such as reducing carbon emissions.
The danger is that we'll inadvertently do something counterproductive, such as
forcing everyone to use biofuels or banning nuclear power. We can't
predict the future so let's keep our options open.
As a Kona coffee farmer I am very dependent on stable weather patterns so
global warming could have a big effect on me. As an outdoor enthusiast,
I am a big fan of environmental responsibility. I'm not saying that
global warming isn't happening, all I'm saying is let's not make any rash
political decisions.
The universe is an extremely complex place. I can't predict the future
and neither can anybody else. Making rash decisions usually backfires
and personally, I'm not yet convinced one way or the other what tomorrow's
weather will be.
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